Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS65 KFGZ 072238
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 PM MST Sun Jun 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy conditions continue through the
beginning of the week. Areas of Critical fire weather each day
through Tuesday. Winds begin to diminish by midweek, and daytime
temperatures become above normal. Slight chance for showers by the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Relatively stationary troughing to our northwest will
keep northern AZ in a dry and windy pattern through the start of
the week. Observations from this afternoon have southwest wind
gusts peaking in the 30-40 mph range. With the combination of
gusty winds and low RH, a Red Flag Warning will remain in effect
through 8 PM MST this evening for most of northern AZ. Critical
fire weather conditions continue on Monday and Tuesday. Areas
along/north White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, and Coconino Plateau
will see daytime peaking in the 35-45 mph range. A Red Flag
Warning will be in effect for these regions Monday morning through
Tuesday evening.

By Wednesday, troughing pushes eastward and the gradient aloft
relaxes. Surface winds diminish compared to previous days, but may
remain gusty enough for localized Near-Critical fire weather in far
eastern AZ. Winds decline enough by Thursday to put a pause on
fire weather concerns. Heights aloft build to above normal, and
expect daytime highs 5-10 degrees above early June normals by late
week. Long term model guidance also hints at a southerly moisture
surge into the weekend. The latest LREF guidance has the mean PW
exceeding the 90th percentile compared to climatology on Friday-
Sunday. The current forecast keeps PoPs 20% or less, but this will
be a period to watch with future updates.



&&

.AVIATION...Monday 08/00Z through Tuesday 09/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S/SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, then subsiding to 5-15 kts through
the overnight. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts
after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/00Z through Thursday 11/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Tuesday, becoming W/SW
10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Wednesday. Winds decreasing to 5-
15 kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Warm, dry, and windy
conditions. There is a slight chance of a dry thunderstorm near the
White Mountains Monday afternoon. Near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions. Winds SW 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each
day. Afternoon minimum RH 5-15%. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
most of northern AZ through Tuesday evening.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and mostly dry. Breezy SW-W winds of
10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph Wednesday, decreasing to 10-15 mph
Thursday and Friday.  Minimum RH is 5-15% each day. A slight
increase in moisture is possible Friday, with a low chance of a high-
based thunderstorm near the White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>116-139-140.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Monday to 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff